Since it was time for the Russian State Duma to be scrutinised next, they agreed to call it a day. They parted and drably got on their feet.
Maurice interrupted the situational mechanics and offered to walk Benedict some of the way. He needed to talk.
“Servant of the People in general and Zelensky in particular have been the target of a lot of attacks from the Russian side, obviously. But up until the war they clearly were serious about a peaceful end to hostilities.”
“Having read many of the accusations against them from pro-Russian sources, I get what you mean. As Head of State, Zelensky becomes an easy target. But he also must operate within the limits of popular demand.
But it was not the most popular demand. We are really witnessing the brutal face of politics. Few loud people can dominate the agenda better than a majority selected by a majority. Poroshenko had his time, but people wanted peace. The 2019 election gave an overwhelming majority to Servant of the People on that platform.
However Poroshenko’s bloc will de facto win any dispute brought in front of a people’s judge. They can outgun the competition checking all the crucial vapid checkboxes: Patriotic, anti-Russian (as a moral value in itself), aggressiveness (as a moral value in itself), uncompromising (which is better than polluting one’s heart), integrity (being about one thing and refuse anything that doesn’t lead to that).”
“Statistics, Benedict. Always check the statistics.”
Benedict - ever prepared - pulled out his iPad and immediately knew where to check:
- Ukrainian perspective: https://dif.org.ua/ and https://www.kiis.com.ua/
- Russian perspective: https://www.levada.ru/
He studied the Ukrainian statistics for a while.
“I urge you to follow links in Safari, Maurice, it even translates images!”
— Ukrainian public opinion before the invasion —
“It’s somewhat schizophrenic. This survey dates from early February 2022. So all Ukrainians from east to west except those in Crimea, LPR, DPR.”
The majority says: Compromise, but not unconditionally (48.3% ~ 57.1%)."
The majority also says: LPR, DPR should return to Ukraine just like before (54.3%)
“So in a way, you are saying that both Servant of the People have popular support (resolve the conflict), as well as European Solidarity (Ukraine’s sovereignty must be inviolable)?”
“Yes. Of course the first question can be misread. It asks: If you want peace, how can it be attained. The participants may not want peace at all, but they answered the question.”
“Maybe. Voting results can be deceiving, but Poroshenko did loose and Zelensky did win. So probably voters wanted peace without wanting to give Zelensky the tools to establish one.”
“The statistics have an opinion on that too:
- Russia started the war (in 2014) in the first place. (65%)
- NATO weapons deter (48%) rather than provoke (33%) the war.”
“So lukewarm majority believed the continual influx of NATO arms and international cooperation was a road to peace.”
“It seems like it.”
— Russian public opinion before the invasion —
“Let’s compare. Levada conducted this survey 17-21 February 2022, so days before the outbreak.
“Question here is about recent escalations, not about responsibility for the war in Donbas.”
“But still, wow! Russians actually blames USA and NATO for escalating, not Ukraine!”
“That only makes the interplay between Russian and Ukrainian politics much more complicated. Ukrainians only see Russia. They are happy with their international partners, but they perceive mostly through an Ukraine—Russia dynamic.
But people in Russia and from what we know in USA as well, perceive primarily through a USA—Russia dynamic.”
“So when Russia punches USA, they tend to hit Ukraine. And when Ukraine receives a blow, they tend to blame Russia only.”
“A bit simplified, but yes, that mechanism is present.”
“Is there any statistics on how to achieve stability and peace in Donbas? Negotiations, escalation?”
“None that I find. But as to the future of LPR DPR:”
“Before the war 25% wanted LPR, DPR to be Russian, 33% sovereign states. Only 9% think they should be ordinary regions within Ukraine. Compare that with 54% of Ukrainians wanted that.”
They sat on a bench in a small forest on the way to Benedict’s home. Maurice spent time looking more at statistics.
“We talked about how the voters favoured a position of the ORDLO areas that gave Zelensky no room for negotiation?
Well, the Russians seem to have it in for NATO too, leaving Putin with a dictate to confront NATO.”
“… And we haven’t even begun the gigantic debate about how politicians can influence the world around them to think according to the needs of the leaders.”
“Until proven otherwise, we should commit ourselves to examining the interplay between events, population, politicians. So first, we look at actual events. Then we look at how media and politicians articulate these events. Then we look at how statistics turn out.”
“I’m tired now. Let’s go back to that topic later.”
Sociological the two countries were in conflict and on incompatible course. It seems that the two peoples were destined for war in 2022. Benedict felt like it was going to be another depressing night. Maurice started to feel his anxiety that we as a human species cannot resolve our conflicts before they burst into festering wounds.
Next day they were not going to see a lot of progress happening, they were sure.
/PARADOX