Maurice and Benedict were on textual drugs. As they both binged through a document they found on the World Bank website called “Eastern Ukraine: Reconnect, Recover, Revitalise” – 3R in English, 3В in Ukrainian – they were somewhat disappointed.
The reader must remember that they had hoped to find an indication of a plan for what Ukraine should do with its Russian population had the breakaway regions not gone out and actually broken away.
But law/project 0134 was sadly not such a proposal.
“Ah, I get it now. Project 3R maps out the economy for a EUR 100 million loan granted on favourable terms to repair roads and generally improve industry in the government controlled areas. Which of course is important.”
There are also an estimated 276,747 IDPs registered in Luhansk GCA as of November 2019, the second largest total in the country, per region, behind Donetsk. However, population numbers continue to decline with significant out-migration.
“Luckily relations between displaced people and host communities appears good. Many young people leave the region. Technical skills go with them.”
“Social problems abound in the area:”
Social cohesion data reveals that entrepreneurship in Luhansk GCAs is among the lowest in Ukraine. Support for Ukraine’s reform agenda is weak and below the national average. Trust in central and local institutions is low and perceptions of poor accountability of government institutions are pronounced.10 Levels of “Soviet nostalgia” (preferring the paternalistic socio- economic ecosystem under the Soviet Union) and civic fatigue are among the highest in the country.
“Some gender skewing, though, because the regional war occupies men mostly.”
The conflict has exacerbated gender gaps and livelihood conditions for women in Ukraine, particularly rural women.
“… But at least violence against women appears under control:”
Although gender-based violence (GBV) has not been widely used by either side as a weapon of war, women have been at substantially higher risk of GBV.
“Of interest is the fact that project has high focus on what can happen during long term construction projects. There’s a risk of potentially undisciplined conditions arising.”
Unlikely but potential negative impacts related to women can include sexual exploitation and gender-based violence (GBV) through the establishment of temporary, community-based workers’ accommodation during the implementation of roadworks. As employment is limited in the region, women from surrounding areas may seek access to opportunistic sources of income.
“They calculate with the possibility and use the project as a vehicle for information campaigning.”
“Yeah.
In 2020, the prospects of escalation were slim, imagine that!”
Escalation of conflict is not likely but possible and in case of escalation zone of active engagements may expand rapidly up to 60-80 km from the established line of contact.
“Roads are damaged through transportation of tanks and other heavy machinery.”
“Ministry for Reintegration of Temporarily Occupied Territories will implement the program.”
“Never heard that ministry mentioned before. I sadly can’t find much on their website. No archives, no reports of value. The ministry is active, informs about what internally displaced people can do and the likes. Basic public service, only relevant for the government controlled areas.”
“I am none the wiser on the basic question: How would Ukrainian politicians have dealt with the dissatisfaction of the Russian speaking residents in Crimea and Donbas areas? Just telling them to shut up and act like Ukrainians doesn’t strike me as a good answer.”
“This is not a peace plan, no. I guess we have to look elsewhere.”
Maurice sighed loudly and Benedict shut the laptop’s lid.
“We are both 100 percent sure at least one proposal must exists, but it’s damned hard to find.”
“The Rada (and the Duma for that matter) seems way too full of excess vitriol.”
“My words exactly. Like probably all governments, those places are not much more than advertising spaces for political parties with this or that uncompromising stance on a popular topic.”
“Let’s call it a day and get on with it tomorrow. Still more days to go before the actual outbreak.”
“I can’t help feeling we need better tools.”
/PARADOX